USDA’s mid-September balance sheets and midweek futures reset the picture for corn, soybeans, and wheat as harvest rolls. Here’s what supply, demand, weather, and trade policy mean right now. Strap in. This is the board as it stood, not as anybody wishes it stood.
The mid-September setup
USDA’s September 11 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) and Crop Production reports reset the tone for the 2026/27 marketing year. Corn production was cut. Soybeans gained a little production but lost carryout. U.S. wheat supply and use were left unchanged. By the September 16 close, nearby CBOT futures were mixed: December corn at $5.34¼ per bushel, November soybeans at $13.20½, and December Chicago soft red winter wheat at $7.30¾.
Nationally, harvest is underway and slightly ahead of average. Western Corn Belt rains—especially in Iowa—are still slowing fieldwork even as the eastern Belt dries out. The demand and policy stories that matter most this month are China soybean buying under tariff friction, elevated U.S. biofuel use, and Black Sea logistics for wheat. Weather, demand and politics are all on the same track this month, and nobody is lifting.
Corn: smaller crop, tighter stocks
September Crop Production put U.S. corn at 15.800 billion bushels, down 213 million from August and about 7% below 2025. Yield was cut to 178.5 bushels per acre. Ending stocks for 2026/27 fell to 1.567 billion bushels, and USDA raised the season-average farm price to $4.80.
Use was trimmed mainly through lower feed and residual. Ethanol and by-products stayed at 5.600 billion bushels; exports held at 3.275 billion. The balance sheet is tighter month over month, but the crop—if realized—would still rank among the larger harvests on record. Near term, futures have reflected profit-taking alongside harvest-delay risk in wet western Belt counties. Smaller crop, tighter bin. That’s the corn story in plain words.
Soybeans: big crop, still-tight stocks
Soybeans moved the other way on production: 4.535 billion bushels, up 16 million from August and about 6% above 2025, with yield at 52.8 bushels per acre (up 0.1 from August and 0.2 below 2025). Ending stocks still fell to 310 million bushels because exports were raised 25 million to 1.685 billion. Crush held at 2.780 billion. USDA lifted the farm price forecast 60 cents to $12.00—the sharpest upward revision among the three major crops this month.
November soybeans settled near $13.20½ on September 16. August NOPA crush came in at 205.46 million bushels—supportive historically, but below trade expectations. Domestic soy oil use for biofuel remains pegged in WASDE at 17.8 billion pounds. Big crop, thin cushion. That’s a combination worth watching closely.
Wheat: U.S. steady, world looser
U.S. wheat aggregates were unchanged: production 1.531 billion bushels, exports 775 million, ending stocks 717 million, farm price raised to $6.40. Globally, ending stocks were raised about 3 million metric tons to 276.29 MMT on larger crops in Australia, Canada, and Ukraine—even as Russia and Ukraine export forecasts were cut on weak August shipments and Black Sea logistics.
Domestic balances remain relatively tight versus last year’s large stocks; the global picture is looser.FROM THIS STORY
December Chicago wheat closed $7.30¾; Kansas City hard red winter was stronger near $7.99½. Domestic balances remain relatively tight versus last year’s large stocks; the global picture is looser. Home looks tight. The world looks loose. Wheat sits in the middle and takes it from both sides.
Harvest weather: ahead nationally, stalled in Iowa
For the week ending September 13, USDA Crop Progress showed corn 8% harvested and soybeans 6% harvested—both ahead of the five-year average. Good-to-excellent ratings were 57% for corn and 58% for soybeans. Spring wheat harvest was essentially done at 93%.
The split is geographic: Iowa reported only about 2% of corn harvested amid heavy rain and local flooding, while eastern Belt heat has been drying fields and speeding combines. Risks into late September include ponding damage, higher drying costs, and northern frost on late fields. Nobody controls the rain. What we control is the plan, the dryer and the timing. Tend to those, and let the sky do what it does.
Trade and policy watch
- China and soybeansUSDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service reports Chinese state buyers continuing purchases under the Busan framework, with sizable new-crop bookings already on the books by mid-August—even while a 10% retaliatory tariff on U.S. soybeans keeps private crushers tilted toward Brazil. Mid-September market coverage pointed to progress toward a large annual purchase pledge ahead of high-level talks.
- BiofuelsEPA’s Renewable Fuel Standard standards for 2026–2027 keep biomass-based diesel obligations elevated. WASDE already embeds strong domestic pull for corn ethanol and soy oil. With the China tariff wedge still in place, domestic crush and renewable diesel remain a structural demand floor for the oilseed complex.
- Black Sea wheatWeak August shipments from Russia and Ukraine and ongoing logistics constraints continue to support wheat futures even as global stocks rise.
Key takeaways
- Corn: September WASDE cut production to 15.8 billion bushels and stocks to 1.57 billion; December futures near $5.34 on September 16.
- Soybeans: Larger crop (4.535 billion bushels) but tighter stocks (310 million) after higher exports; farm price to $12.00; November beans near $13.21.
- Wheat: U.S. balance unchanged and relatively tight; world stocks higher; December Chicago near $7.31.
- Harvest is ahead of average nationally but delayed by western Belt rains, especially Iowa.
- Watch China soybean buying under tariffs, RFS/biofuel crush demand, and Black Sea export logistics into late September.
Sources
- USDA WASDE, September 2026 (WASDE-675): https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796054/wasde0926.pdf
- USDA Crop Production, September 11, 2026: https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796056/crop0926.pdf
- USDA Crop Progress, September 14, 2026: https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796060/prog3726.pdf
- Brownfield Ag News, closing grain futures, September 16, 2026: https://www.brownfieldagnews.com/market-news/closing-grain-and-livestock-futures-september-16-2026/
- FAS China Oilseeds Update (GAIN CH2026-0113), September 4, 2026: https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Oilseeds+and+Products+Update_Beijing_China+-+People%27s+Republic+of_CH2026-0113.pdf
- EPA, Final Renewable Fuel Standards for 2026 and 2027: https://www.epa.gov/renewable-fuel-standard/final-renewable-fuel-standards-2026-and-2027
- DTN / Progressive Farmer, Crop Progress, September 14, 2026: https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/news/article/2026/09/14/usda-crop-progress-corn-8-harvested
- Pro Farmer, After the Bell, September 16, 2026 (December HRW/Kansas City wheat $7.99 1/2): https://www.profarmer.com/news/after-bell/after-bell-corn-lags-while-soybeans-and-wheat-inch-higher
- Reuters via MarketScreener, NOPA August US soybean crush 205.456 million bushels (Sept. 15, 2026): https://uk.marketscreener.com/news/nopa-august-us-soybean-crush-drops-to-11-month-low-of-205-456-million-bushels-ce785bdddf8efe25
- StoneX, Snap NOPA Soybean Crush Report Numbers (Sept. 15, 2026: crush “sharply lower than expected”): https://stonex.digital/snap-nopa-soybean-crush-report-numbers-2026-09-15
- RFD-TV, China Hits Half of Annual Soybean Commitment Ahead of Trump-Xi Meeting (Sept. 21, 2026; cites Reuters, Sept. 10): https://www.rfdtv.com/china-hits-half-of-annual-soybean-commitment-ahead-of-trump-xi-meeting
Figures as of mid-September 2026. Futures are CBOT nearby closes for September 16, 2026. September Grain Stocks (scheduled September 30) was not yet available at writing.
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